26 June 2009

Address by Peter Debnam MP

Thank you for joining our Friday Lunch Forum to discuss the 21 month countdown to the election.

This is the business end of the political cycle when voters begin scrutinising the offerings.

But at the moment voters are only seeing the Labor Government – thankfully still on the nose. 

Premier Rees is struggling with his own inexperience and the sheer exhaustion of his Government. Despite a smart Budget this month, Rees’ bravado is no substitute for his lack of parliamentary and frontbench experience and a lack of direction for his Government.

But putting Labor to one side, our job in Opposition is not only to be the devil’s advocate holding the Government to account, but also to propose alternative ways of delivering better services and infrastructure.

And if as often happens, the Government picks up our policies - then good, we are already governing from Opposition.

It’s now also time voters were re-assured that Liberals will again offer the policies and hunger for change that brought us a good swing at the 2007 election.

In last year’s mid-term by-elections, we did benefit from Labor’s electricity privatisation meltdown. But for the General Election in March 2011, voters want to know what NSW Liberals stand for and after watching the ducking and weaving of the last two years, voters probably at best see NSW Liberals as simply saying “We’re not Labor”.

And at worst voters see Liberals have equivocated on long overdue reform of the public sector bureaucracy, announced a naïve softly, softly message about law enforcement, surprisingly amended education legislation to frustrate parents and unbelievably amended property legislation to betray small investors.

It was therefore no surprise to see this morning’s Sydney Morning Herald lead with the headline “A Government that can’t cope collides with an Opposition without shame” and then the paper reinforced the message with an Opinion Piece saying the Liberals “again put politics over principle”.

So it really is time to briefly review what the job is all about and what we have to offer.

What do people want of State Government?

While Local Government is traditionally seen as Roads, Rates and Rubbish and Federal Government should be about Sustainable Economic Growth and National Security, State Governments provide the means and machinery to deliver public services and upgrade infrastructure.

As such, State Government is largely a management role and in NSW it involves managing some of the largest organisations and businesses in Australia and delivering the largest infrastructure projects.

Naturally in delivering services and infrastructure in a democracy, there will be no shortage of people to highlight failings and criticise performance. Voters and the Opposition will usually enthusiastically hold the Government to account at every opportunity.

But the more difficult challenge is identifying fundamental improvements to the way Government does its job. That challenge falls to Oppositions and academia and it’s clearly an urgent challenge in NSW.

When you peel the onion a bit, you realise that unless we change the nature of the NSW Government, this state will continue to suffer at best mediocre public administration and often extraordinarily expensive mismanagement.

And the ongoing and expensive failures of the NSW Government will continue to be a burden on private enterprise, hold back economic activity and prove a drag on the Australian economy.

The ineffectiveness of the NSW Government machinery is highlighted week after week as most of the opportunities and difficulties in NSW fall down the cracks between those departments and agencies.
 
Labor’s “Super” Departments announced in the last month are in one way a timid step towards rationalising the fiefdoms but what’s really needed is a resolute determination to re-organise the public sector to substantially shift resources from the bureaucracy to the frontline.

A “Super” Department is entirely the wrong message to suggest slimmed-down back offices supporting well-resourced, responsive frontlines. But that’s Labor’s message and we should be tackling their timid approach.

Liberals must change the public sector objectives from traditional empire building and bureaucratic paper-shuffling and remake it into a Public Service tightly focused on frontline services delivering for the community.

Just to put my comments in context, let’s remember Australians don't sit around waiting for Government to improve their lifestyle or their infrastructure.

To the extent they can, Australians work AROUND governments. Our citizens tend to structure their lives to minimise interaction with the Government because they have learnt to avoid disappointment. People, able to do so, actively seek to insulate themselves from government failure.

But there will always be people who cannot do that and are in real need - families coping with disabilities or emergencies, families needing crisis accommodation, families suffering extraordinary crime and neighbourhoods threatened by public disorder.

For example, with daily shootings, stabbings, armed hold-ups, mob brawls, drunk and disorderly streets and finally this morning again an innocent bystander shot dead in a gang shoot-out, why have Liberals vacated the law and order field?

Communities under siege need good government services and usually they don’t get them.
 
Four areas of state services and infrastructure are raw nerves with the community and failure in these functions produces a prompt backlash. The four raw nerves are crime, health emergency services, passenger rail and roads.

These issues focus media interest and community concern and have done so virtually every day for some time.

The current NSW Labor Government is third generation and is currently incompetent, dysfunctional and probably terminal.

We all know that and voters know that, so in this speech I won’t dwell on Labor’s failings.

Instead today, let’s talk about what Liberals can do before and after the 2011 election.

A Fork in the Road

Regardless of who is elected at the next state election, Labor or Coalition, they can deliver more of the same OR they can point NSW in a new direction.

Voters want change and they want to be trusted to be part of that change. They don’t need motherhood promises about how different we will be from Labor.

Voters want to know what we stand for  - our vision and our plans. In speech after speech before the last election, I laid out that vision and those plans and policies. They remain relevant.

We took every opportunity to entrench a strong brand for no-nonsense law and order, disciplined economic management and a determination to reshape Government to deliver for the community.

We were hungry to change everything about Government in NSW. Remember, it is not enough to have an appetite for Government. We need to demonstrate that Liberals have a visceral hunger for Government!

The public need to see Liberals vigorously opposing, proposing and believing in something. Yes, we must aggressively hold the Government to account right up to the election but we also must set the agenda.

Voters want a real alternative. They don’t want just a change of jockey.

They want a Party and a Leader committed to clean out the stables.

They want a Party and a Leader committed to reshaping the machinery of Government and refocusing it on community service in the 21st Century. That cannot be done without reforming the bureaucracy.

To borrow from the current Prime Minister, NSW is “at a fork in the road”. In a year and a half, people have a decision to make.

While voters still have 21 months to decide who governs after the election, the Liberal Party is running out of time to position for the election and for Government.

Will the Liberals continue a small target strategy, political opportunism on every issue and just keep damning the Labor Government until the votes are in the ballot box?

OR will we take the community into our confidence and tell them what we stand for?

Unless Liberals establish an identity in the next six months, Liberals simply won’t be heard in 2010 or 2011 above the clatter of shovels digging Labor’s new projects across NSW and Labor driving new buses into local streets.

Don’t underestimate Labor’s campaigning skills. We can’t afford to try and establish a Party brand in late 2010 and during the 2011 campaign.

During this winter break, Deborah and I are spending a few weeks with our family overseas. In fact I’m stepping on a plane tomorrow to meet the newest member of our family – a very cute, three day old New Yorker named Bronte.

And I hope all Coalition MPs will enjoy as much time as possible with families in the next few weeks because when Parliament resumes in September it must FINALLY be the start of an intensive 18 month campaign - just as we did for the last election.

Start Campaigning Now

This campaign is going to be tough and with Labor in a corner you can guarantee it’s also going to be filthy.

NSW politics is not for the faint-hearted. Anyone in doubt should read “The Wild Men of Sydney” which remains the self-help manual for the Labor Right in NSW.

Anyone still in doubt should look at the Labor lies thrown at me in the last state campaign.

But during the 2007 election, we had the courage of our convictions and when we stood up to Labor’s filthy campaign the community came with us and we achieved a good swing to Liberals and Nationals for the first time in almost twenty years.

In June 2008, I delivered a speech to correct Labor’s rhetoric about the 2007 election result. Regrettably some of our party members are still confused about that election perhaps because some Liberal Party people, for their own purposes, talked down our success in winning back voters in 2007.

In the previous four elections, 1991,1995,1999 and 2003 Liberals went backwards dramatically. Then, for the first time in nineteen years and five state elections, we won back voters at the 2007 election.

We won back voters not only because Labor was falling out of favour but also because well before the election, we announced a coherent set of policies and more than previous Oppositions had done.

In the years between elections, Labor has blatantly ignored community interest even allowing their voter support to briefly drop to an historic low by betraying the community and proposing electricity privatisation. But Labor knows it is a temporary drop.

Labor are now digging themselves out of that electricity (and Mini-Budget) hole and will soon begin campaigning in earnest for the 2011 election.

But sufficient NSW voters to change the Government have now swung away from trusting Labor and are toying with backing the Liberals and Nationals. However, as polls demonstrate month after month, many of those swinging voters are parking their vote in the middle – for the moment.

Despite the fact Labor is in more strife than ever, the Coalition’s primary vote now is generally lower than in 2004, 05 and 06 when we were also leading Labor in the polls (before Workchoices and Labor’s taxpayer funded promotional ads started to bite in mid 2006).

It is clear to me they want to be convinced that Liberals stand for something.

Government’s Media Advantage

I well remember in early 2006 when we were still ahead in the polls, former Prime Minister John Howard warned me “Never underestimate the capacity of Governments to make up ground when they decide they have to fight back”.

Remember Governments have a natural franchise on media. The media needs feeding and the Government is their first port of call and often their last as well.

As an indication of the media exposure of Government versus Opposition, consider the last six months of media. It was a terrible period for the NSW Government and a wonderful opportunity for the Opposition.

Using the Parliamentary Library records of newspaper hits as a good indicator of overall media exposure from January to June, Premier Rees got 1,033 hits and the Opposition Leader scored 281 hits – that’s about 4 to 1.

Senior Ministers such as Transport Minister David Campbell scored 223 and Treasurer Eric Roozendaal hit 166 while Verity Firth hit 137 and the Deputy Premier Carmel Tebbutt came in at 97 hits during that period.

Three very active Coalition MPs are the tireless Jillian Skinner at 69 hits, Shadow Treasurer Mike Baird on 60 hits and Andrew Stoner as National Party Leader got 56 hits. (And of course Andrew’s metropolitan media hits very much understate the reality that he does more regional media than any of us.)

The reality is that Leaders of Parties have a media franchise at least four times greater than other frontbenchers and the Government has a further advantage of 4 to 1 over the Opposition.

The Premier typically gets 4 times more media than the Opposition Leader and 16 times more media than Opposition Shadow Ministers.

I remember some periods before the last election where I was able to get the ratio down to 3:1 as Opposition Leader versus Premier Iemma  - but that was the best we could do in our Westminster System where all power and therefore most newspaper stories are with the Government.

The media bottom line is a simple message – whether Governments get their act together or not, they swamp Oppositions in media exposure to voters. When Governments are working well, they are untouchable through the media.

Relying on paid advertising is unrealistic given Labor and the Unions will always outspend Coalition advertising.

The warning is equally simple – when NSW Labor resolves the Tony Stewart problem – which they will - and when they bed down the public sector unions – which they soon will - then Liberals better have a very favourable and very loud message for voters.

Usually, Oppositions overcome this media and advertising disadvantage by being consistent over the years and over elections - which is why Liberals tend to win after their Leader has contested two elections with consistent policies (Howard, Kennett, Greiner, Barnett).

The Opposition Leader or Alternative Premier must allocate more time, resources and courage to strengthening not denying our brand.

Cut Through Messages?

Every now and then Oppositions get a few opportunities to cut through on issues that matter.

It’s not a time for glib commentary. It’s a time to look voters in the eye and tell them what makes you tick.

With the Government in more strife than ever, there’s been no shortage of those opportunities in the last year to put a stake in the ground on policy and philosophy.

But those opportunities have been sacrificed for the small target political opportunist strategy. That’s a mistake.

Current polling shows one thing – voters have lost faith in Labor and want answers from Liberals.

The questions are simple. They only need Yes or No answers. Here’s a few easy ones:

* With NSW families threatened by recession will Liberals support urgent infrastructure investment OR not?

* Will Liberals rationalise Government bureaucracy to transfer billions of dollars to the frontline OR not?

* Will Liberals downsize the Premier’s Department by 50% OR not?

* Will Liberals tell the hundreds of public servants without a job to get on with their life OR not?

* Will Liberals knock the RTA’s arrogance out of its ivory tower, dismantle it and refocus on road building and road safety OR not?

* Will Liberals dramatically downsize the Health Department Bureaucracy and return power and resources to hospitals’ medical staff OR not?

* Will Liberals say No to drugs, properly resource drug law enforcement and drug treatment OR not?

* Will Liberals confirm the rights of local communities to provide diverse residential accommodation while retaining the character of their suburbs OR not?

* Will Liberals outlaw confidentiality clauses in taxpayer-funded settlements OR not?

*Will Liberals back the Police Commissioner to reclaim neighbourhoods and roads from thugs and hoons OR not?

*Will Liberals change the NSW Crime Commission from a drug tax collector to a prosecutor OR not?

*Will Liberals protect and employ whistleblowers OR not?

The Election is not the End Point

While 90% of the pressure has been on the Rees Government the focus is turning to whether the Opposition has the policy solutions and the strength of our convictions to deliver real change.

In the years before the last state election, we announced a coherent set of policies and more than previous Oppositions had done. As a result, the Government and media were never able to call us a policy free zone and before and after the election Labor adopted many of our policies.

With the exception of our IR policy, which Labor successfully poisoned with Workchoices, our other policies were well received. And the vast bulk of those policies remain available for confirmation by the Coalition and they include real reform of the public sector.

The question about courage is clearly for both sides of Parliament. It’s not just the Government in the firing line.

Having turned the tide against the Government at the 2007 state election and consolidated the momentum in the mid-term by-elections, voters now want to see the strength of our resolve to fix NSW’s problems.

If for example we were to approach the next election with a small target strategy minimising exposure of policies and relying on the Labor Party to keep stabbing themselves, then voters could rightly ask – what will change if we are elected to Government?

NSW is beyond more of the same and unless we take the community with us on our reform program, we could also suffer the same one-term fate of the Greiner Government.

Part of taking the community with us is doing what we did in the run up to the last election that is openly discussing real reform. We must do that again – have the courage of our convictions.

So to my colleagues here today and others as they read this speech, we must ensure we stand for something.

Winning Government by default of a collapsing Labor Party will certainly give you a Ministerial salary but won’t give the community the policy debate and real reform they so desperately need in NSW.

And an election win is not guaranteed by any means. Unless Liberals stand for something, you may witness the biggest near-miss in the state’s history.

The Labor Government is hopefully in terminal decline and it really is now up to the Opposition to demonstrate a hunger to govern.
 
We need to also remember the election is not the end point. If winning office at any cost was really all we’re about, then we’re just as bad as Labor.

We need to deliver a game changing strategy for the state, which improves life for the community.

Let’s remember that and find a little courage to deliver real reform and take the community with us.

Liberals need to stand for more than political opportunism and stunts. When push comes to shove, I know I want a Liberal Party with strong values and determination.

We have a great story to tell and it’s yet to be told. I wouldn’t leave it much longer or Labor will build their own version of our story.

Coalition is Life – without it we don’t exist in NSW

Mostly today I‘ve talked about the Liberal Party but we can only win Government in NSW in coalition with the Nationals.

That’s a fact of life and it explains why our political partnership in NSW has been so strong for generations and will remain so. And it is not the only reason I’m delighted to have Andrew Stoner join us today.

In the long campaign before the 2007 Election, Andrew was one of the people I could really rely on – someone who didn’t shy away from responsibility and someone who had real courage.

When you are in the trenches, you want to make sure the person next to you is friend not foe.

It was because of a few people like Andrew who held their courage in the face of overwhelming odds that we made such good progress in the 2007 election.

Deborah and I remain indebted to Andrew and Cathy for their strong values and their friendship. I’ve asked Andrew to say a few words about the challenges ahead for the National Party over the next 21 months.

Please welcome the Leader of the National Party, Andrew Stoner.